Gold analysis on dated 15-12-2020


Futures contracts for gold prices fluctuated in a narrow range that tends to rise during the Asian session, overlooking the positive stability of the US dollar index according to the inverse relationship between them following the developments and economic data that they followed today Tuesday about the Chinese economy, the largest consumer of metals in the world and on the cusp of developments and economic data anticipated by the US economy The largest economy in the world.

Which includes the start of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee December 15-16, and in light of the investors’ aspiration for the approval of legislators and monetary policy makers for more stimulus to face the repercussions of the pandemic, amid fears of the intensity of the outbreak of the second wave of the Corona virus in many countries, which limits optimism with the introduction of vaccines. Of the coronavirus recently.

At exactly 05:33 am GMT, gold futures contracts for next February delivery rose 0.39% to trade at $ 1,837.70 an ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,830.50 an ounce, knowing that the contracts started the session on a rising price gap after yesterday’s trading was concluded At $ 1,832.10 per ounce, while the US dollar index rose 0.05%, to 90.71, compared to an opening at 90.66.

We have followed the disclosure of the National Bureau of Statistics of China on the annual reading of the retail sales index, which reflected the acceleration of growth to 5.0% compared to 4.3% in October, below expectations of 5.1%, and the annual reading of industrial production showed that growth accelerated to 7.0%, in line with expectations Against 6.9% in October, the unemployment rate reading showed a decline to 5.2%, in line with expectations, compared to 5.3% in October.

Other than that, we have followed the People’s Bank of China (the Central Bank of China) pumping cash liquidity into the Chinese financial system as part of government efforts to ensure that banks in the largest economies in Asia and the second largest in the world have sufficient liquidity, by adding 950 billion yuan (145 $ Billion) in cash in the banking system for one year by facilitating medium-term lending, while interest rates on loans remain unchanged at 2.95%.

In another context, we also followed up on the Bank of Japan’s extension of the corporate finance program for six months as part of the efforts aimed at confronting the negative repercussions of the Corona pandemic, and this came hours after the report that the Japanese government intends to approve a third additional stimulus package during the fiscal year that ends at the end of March / Next March, worth 19.2 trillion yen ($ 185 billion) to support the second largest economy in Asia and the third largest in the world against the repercussions of the pandemic.

On the other hand, investors are awaiting the US economy to reveal the industrial sector data for the largest industrialized country in the world, with the release of the New York Industrial Index, which may reflect the stability of the expansion at a value of 6.3 during December, coinciding with the release of the import price index reading. Which may indicate a rise of 0.3% compared to a decline of 0.1% last October.

This comes, before we witness the release of the industrial production index, which may reflect a slowdown in growth to 0.3% compared to 1.1% in October, in conjunction with the reading of the energy utilization rate index showing an increase to 73.1% against 72.8%, leading to the start of the FOMC meeting. For the open market December 15-16, during which interest rates are expected to remain at the lowest ever, between zero and 0.25%.

Markets are also looking forward to tomorrow, Wednesday, after the FOMC meeting, to reveal the committee’s expectations for growth rates, inflation and unemployment, in addition to the future interest rates for the next three years and amid market’s hopes for the Fed’s expansion in the asset purchase program, half an hour before the press conference to be held by the Reserve Bank governor. Fed Jerome Powell tomorrow to comment on the decisions of the Fed’s monetary policy makers.

Gold price was unable to breach 1820.00 level, to start today with a noticeable positivity and surpass the 1833.00 level, heading towards achieving expected gains during the upcoming sessions, on its way to initially test 1850.00 level, noting that surpassing this level will extend the bullish wave to reach 1875.00 as a next station.

Thus, we expect to witness more gains today, keeping in mind that a break of 1820.00 will stop the expected rise and pressurize the price to incur losses that start at 1806.90 and extend to 1790.70.

The expected trading range for today is between 1815.00 support and 1855.00 resistance

The expected general trend for today: Bullish